Towards Operational Earthquake Forecasting

GFZ personnel participating to WP3:
C. Cattania (PhD position funded by REAKT), S. Hainzl, F. Roth

Task 3.1: Model building, calibration and testing
(INGV, ETHZ, GFZ, ULSTER, CNRS)

The specific activities are: 

• Conduct research on innovative 2nd generation forecast models that promise a higher probability gain than existing ones. For instance, among others, hybrid physical/statistical models that incorporate existing information on fault structures and stress transfer among the neighboring faults. To account for small-scale variability and uncertainties, deterministic calculations will be combined with stochastic model components for earthquake nucleation, propagation and triggering.
• Support the model development in the European testing regions by calibrating exiting models and by developing or adopting region specific models.

Task 3.2: Building up a European framework that supports earthquake forecasting experiments
(ETHZ, GFZ, INGV, IMO, KOERI, UEDIN, SCEC)

The specific activities are:

• Set up the testing regions Iceland and Turkey within the CSEP EU testing Center This includes regional workshops and training events with regions modelers.
• Build up the capability for consensus based retrospective testing experiments at local and regional scale.
• Build up the capacity to evaluate and test physical precursors (alarm based or probabilistic) Strongly linked with the activities of WP2 where transients before large shocks will be studied.
• Collaborate with the international CSEP community on model development, testing standards and predictability research

Task 3.4: Implementing Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Best practice guidelines and consensus building
( INGV, ETHZ, GFZ, ULST, CNRS, SCE)

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