Methods and Tools for a cost efficient flood management – improved approaches for flood loss estimation

The estimation of economic flood losses is a crucial component when decisions about flood defence are made on the basis of cost-benefit-analysis. However, methodological development in this area has not received much scientific attention so far. Therefore, improved and scientifically sound loss models are a fundamental step towards cost-effective flood management. This project aims to develop improved and transferable methods for the estimation of direct and indirect economic flood losses for all economic sectors, primarily on basis of flood loss data from recent floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006 in the Elbe- and Danube-catchment. The new methods are to be validated using official loss data, tested on transferability and applied in the framework of a sensitivity analysis at the Lockwitzbach in Dresden.

For the improvement and harmonisation of damage data collection a workshop with authorities, insurance, consultancy and scientific institutes has been organised and an expert survey following the Delphi method has been undertaken. On this basis, guidelines for the standardised collection of flood loss data are developed and a flood loss database for Germany HOWAS 21 has been constructed.

Computer-aided telephone interviews of flood affected and have been undertaken in the aftermath of the (2002), 2005 and 2006 floods in Germany. Flood loss estimation models for private households and companies (FLEMOps, FLEMOcs) have been developed . A web-based brochure for community information on flood precautionary measures is developed to support risk awareness and private precaution. This activity is undertaken together with the Rimax-project URBAS and NADINE a project of the Helmholtz association.

The results will be effective in three domains:  

1. science: improved, transferable methods for flood loss estimation
2. water management: guidelines
3. local: support of flood precaution in Dresden and other communities

Project partner:

Dr.-Ing. Bruno Merz, Dr. Annegret Thieken, Isabel Seifert, Dr. Heidi Kreibich

Prof. Dr. Reimund Schwarze, Dr. Uwe Kunert, Dr. Dietmar Edler Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, DIW Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 5, 14195 Berlin

Dr. Jochen Schwarz, André Gerstberger, Holger Maiwald Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Zentrum für Ingenieuranalyse von Erdbebenschäden am Institut für Konstruktiven Ingenieurbau, Marienstraße 7a, 99421 Weimar

Prof. Dr. Friedrich Kuhlmann, Bernd Kuhlmann, Dr. Bernd Weinmann Justus-Liebig Universität Gießen, Institut für Betriebslehre der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft, Senckenbergstraße 3, 35390 Gießen

Dr.-Ing. Klaus Piroth, Volker Ackermann ARCADIS Consult GmbH, Brüsseler Straße 5, 67657 Kaiserslautern Cooperation partner: Jens-Olaf Seifert Umweltamt der Stadt Dresden, Grunaer Straße 2, 01069 Dresden

Meike Müller Deutsche Rückversicherung AG, Abt. Technik und Service, Hansaallee 177, 40549 Düsseldorf

Dr. Uwe Müller Landestalsperrenverwaltung Sachsen, Postfach 100234, 01782 Pirna