In the face of rapid global environmental and climatic change, there is an urgent need to distinguish between natural mechanisms and human-induced processes. Understanding the space-time dynamics of extreme events is a prerequisite for their predictabilty. We aim at a better projection of Earth system change—ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, weather patterns, biodiversity and landscape dynamics—by studying the carbon cycle, climate and ecosystem dynamics during periods in the recent past that saw higher average seawater temperatures, elevated pCO₂ or accelerated rates of change. In more recent deposits, we monitor the onset of an anthropogenic overprint.