The smooth functioning of the European economy and the welfare of its citizens depends upon an ever-growing set of services and facilities that are reliant on space and ground based infrastructure. Examples include communications (radio, TV, mobile phones), navigation of aircraft and private transport via GPS, and service industries (e.g. banking). These services, however, can be adversely affected by the space weather hazards. The forecasting of space weather hazards, driven by the dynamical processes originating on the sun, is critical to the mitigation of their negative effects.

The goal of PROGRESS is to develop an accurate and reliable forecast system for the occurrence and severity of space weather events. Within project PROGRESS we aim to develop an European tool to forecast the solar wind parameters just upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. We will develop a comprehensive set of forecasting tools for geomagnetic indices by combining the most accurate data based forecast of electron fluxes at GEO with the most comprehensive physics based model of the radiation belts currently available to deliver a reliable forecast of radiation environment in the radiation belts.

Time Frame

1/2015-7/2018

Funding

EU HORIZON 2020

Principal Investigators

Róbert von Fáy-Siebenbürgen (University of Sheffield)

Natalia Ganushkina (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

Tony Arber (University of Warwick)

Mike Liemohm (University of Michigan)

Peter Wintoft (Swedish Institute of Space Physics)

Vitaliy Yatsenko (NSAU-NASU Space Research Institute)

Vladimir Krasnoselskikh (Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace)

Yuri Shprits (GFZ)

Personnel

Irina Zhelavskaya

Angelica Castillo

Ingo Michaelis

Nikita Aseev

Dedong Wang

Juan Sebastian Cervantes Villa

Project Website

https://ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/progress/html

Cooperations

University of Sheffield, UK

Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland

University of Warwick, UK

University of Michigan, USA

NSAU-NASU Space Research Institute, Ukraine

Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace, France

Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Sweden

Methods and Equipment

•  The Versatile Electron Radiation Belt Code
•  Kalman filter
•  Data assimilation
•  Internal GFZ computing servers

Publication/Results

Usanova, M. E., Shprits, Y. (2017): Inner magnetosphere coupling: Recent advances. - Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, 1, p. 102-104.

Shprits, Y., Kellerman, A., Aseev, N., Drozdov, A. Y., Michaelis, I. (2017): Multi-MeV Electron Loss in the Heart of the Radiation Belts. - Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 3, p. 1204-1209.

Kim, K.-C., Shprits, Y. (2017): Dependence of the amplitude of magnetosonic waves on the solar wind and AE index using Van Allen Probes. - Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, 6, p. 6022-6034.

Drozdov, A. Y., Shprits, Y., Usanova, M. E., Aseev, N. A., Kellerman, A. C., Zhu, H. (2017): EMIC wave parameterization in the long-term VERB code simulation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, 8488–8501.

Zhelavskaya I. S., Shprits, Y., Spasojevic, M. (2017): Empirical modeling of the plasmasphere dynamics using neural networks, Journal of Geophysical Research, 122.

Aseev, N. A., Shprits, Y., Drozdov, A. Y., Kellerman, A. C., Usanova, M. E., Wang, D., Zhelavskaya, I. S. (2017): Signatures of ultrarelativistic electron loss in the heart of the outer radiation belt measured by Van Allen Probes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 122.