(Probabilistic) Tsunami Hazard Assessment
Knowing and understanding of the tsunami hazard is fundamental for understanding and mitigation of the tsunami risk to society. As destructive tsunamis are rear (“low rate – high impact”) events, and their historical observations are sparse, tsunami research is to a large extent driven by numerical models. Numerical scenarios of potential future events are being benchmarked agains past observations and laboratory experiments. Previous deterministic scenarios of “worst credible cases” aimed to assess hazard potential at specific locations, are nowadays being replaced by probabilistic studies employing hundreds of thousands or even million of scenarios exploring the full range of impact uncertainties.
Relevant projects and initiatives:
Tsunami Early Warning
After the GITEWS project developed and established a novel multi-sensor tsunami Early Warning System in Indoneisa, Section 2.5 continued studies in research and development towards faster and better tsunami early warning with the main focus on methodologies of fast source characterization using real-time GNSS (Global Satellite Navigation System). Advantages of GNSS-augmented early warning were demonstrated on hand of the great and significant earthquakes in Indonesia (2004 Sumatra), Japan (2011 Tohoku), Chile (2015 Illapel) and analysed for the application in the Mediterranean region.
Relevant projects and initiatives:
Capacity Building
Studies on tsunami hazard assessment and development of novel technologies for better and faster tsunami early warning will not be finally effective in reducing damages and losses if local disaster managers and population won’t be prepared. Understanding of the hazard, awareness about it, knowledge about the early warning and safety measures – all that is a necessary prerequisite to minimize loss of lives and damages to infrastructures in the future.
Since 2005 Section 2.5 has always taken active part in numerous capacity building intiatives including international training of local experts in the countries of the Indian Ocean and Pacifics. Development of methodologies and tools to better communicate hazard and uncertainties (like “Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting” or multi-hazard “storylines) help civil protection to better understand, visualize and communicate tsunami hazard.
Since 2024 GFZ-Potsdam, through Section 2.5, implements a role of the Coordinator of the EPOS Thematic Core Services TSUNAMI aimed at consolidation of the European Tsunami Comunity for more effective tsunami service provision to broad range of stakeholders.
Relevant projects and initiatives:
