At the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2023, the GFZ had official observer* status for the first time and was represented by a three-member scientific delegation. At this year's 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), which takes place from 11 to 22 November 2024 in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, Dr Kathleen Mar from the Research Institute for Sustainability RIFS and Dr Abror Gafurov from Section 4.4 Hydrology are once again on site for the GFZ.

Prof Martin Herold is not be there this year. We interviewed him about his impressions of the last Conference of Parties (COP) and also asked him for an outlook on this year's conference in Baku. Martin Herold is Head of Section 1.4 ‘Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics’ at the GFZ. His research focuses on the global dynamics of land surfaces and he works on linking data streams from the various sources of ground, near-surface and remote sensing. Herold is internationally well connected and was, among other things, a leading IPCC author.


Prof Herold, you have already attended many of the conferences of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change?
Yes, I have been involved in many COPs since 2005. I took part in the previous Conferences of the Parties via a delegation from the European Space Agency (ESA). Last year I was there with the official GFZ delegation. This year I am following the events from afar.


What were the big topics at the last COP and what do you think will play a prominent role this year?
A major topic at the last Conference of the Parties was ‘Loss and damage due to climate change’. A lot centred on mechanisms to compensate for climate damage and, of course, the financing of adaptation measures. Financing climate protection will also play a prominent role this year, particularly in the newly industrialising countries and the poorest countries in the world.


What contribution can your research make?
We can support the climate protection negotiations with our research, particularly in the field of global climate observation, through the systematic and long-term observation of the climate at a global and regional level. One of the key objectives of our research is to improve observation systems so that existing observation gaps can be closed. And we are actively involved in helping countries to realise their climate targets, e.g. we support the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and their quantification. In addition to fossil fuels, the land use sector also plays a very important role here. We scientists provide the necessary information so that concrete plans and measures can be developed.


What proposals are there for climate protection in developing countries, for example? Could you briefly explain some important points?
If you want to reduce greenhouse gases in the tropics, land use is an important starting point. Different land uses and their changes have different impacts on emissions. Changes in land use, for example the conversion of tropical forest to farmland, are often a greater source of CO₂ than the use of fossil fuels locally. Forest changes, but also fire, play a major role in land use. Our remote sensing data, which we collect using satellites or drones, for example, can record both in spatial and temporal detail.


Do peatlands also play a role in land use change?
Yes, certainly. In the tropics, peatlands are still being converted and drained on a massive scale in order to utilise the land for agriculture. There are large areas of peatland in Southeast Asia, for example in Indonesia, which are under great pressure to be utilised. There are also large peatlands in Central Africa and South America, but the pressure to utilise them is not quite as great here. In Germany and Europe, on the other hand, the rewetting of peatlands is being discussed and tackled as a climate protection measure. We are also very active in this area at the GFZ, for example in Brandenburg. Wet peatlands can store much more carbon soils in the long term than normal forests, so that we can achieve very large effects per area.


But forest loss is still an issue worldwide?
Yes, we generally see that forest areas are declining, especially in the tropics where massive deforestation is still taking place and large areas are also being lost due to fires. In principle, forest loss is always bad for the climate. Reducing forest loss is therefore an issue that many countries are working on, both in the tropics and in Europe. Here in Europe, we are seeing an increase in climate extremes that are a burden for forests and lead to further greenhouse gas emissions through forest loss. In Europe, too, there are growing signs that we are increasingly losing forests as an important carbon sink. We can now build on a significantly improved data situation here. We know better where the forest is changing, why, and also what the CO₂ and carbon balance is. And we know where to start in order to better protect the forest - for example with adapted tree species and more diversity.


What are other important topics at COP29 that relate to your research?
Another important question is where more carbon can be reintroduced into the landscape, soil and vegetation in land use systems where agriculture is practiced, among other things. That would be important in terms of negative emissions.


Last year, the signatory governments committed to taking integrated action on the climate crisis, species extinction and land degradation in the ‘COP28 Joint Statement on Climate, Nature and People’. The aim is to promote synergies between the Paris Agreement and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which aims to conserve global biodiversity. Is this an important starting point?
Yes, this is an extremely important starting point. Because when you think about protecting nature and ecosystem services, climate is just one of many issues. And that is a bit of the problem with the climate convention. The Paris Climate Agreement is isa very active and successful process, even if not everything that was planned can always be realised. But ultimately, it is extremely important to link the climate issue with other issues, such as land use, biodiversity and our livelihoods. They all belong together. It is therefore very important that it is not just about carbon (CO₂ reduction). It is also about adapting to changing conditions so that our livelihoods are preserved.

For example, diverse forests are more resilient and will be better able to cope with climate change. And secondly, biodiversity and sustainable land use are issues that are challenging and important regardless of climate change. It is a joint task to take care of the big picture and not just have climate glasses on.


What progress do you consider necessary in the coming years, especially with regard to your research topics? Which topics and scientific facts should be given greater consideration by politicians?
Climate monitoring is an ongoing task, as only long and consistent time series help us to recognise the effects of climate change as such and distinguish them from short-term phenomena. This is nothing new, but it must be emphasised again and again. To do this, satellite and terrain measurements must be combined over the long term. On the one hand, the observation data forms the basis for climate protection measures. On the other hand, they help us to track the progress that has actually been made as a result of the changes we have initiated in land use - for example, if we have rewetted a particular moor, protected a particular forest or reforested a specific area. This is important not only to gain a general understanding of the effects of measures, but also to provide concrete support to local people in implementing them. In addition to global observations, it is also important to provide information quickly and locally. At Helmholtz, precisely those applied topics that are particularly in demand politically and socially because they contribute to better implementation of measures will also be reflected in our new long-term research strategy POF-V, which we are currently working on.

In your opinion, which topics at COP 29 are particularly politically relevant?
The issue of loss and damage and adaptation to climate change is particularly important to me. And I think it is essential that developing countries receive more support in order to adapt. This is the path we need to take and to which science must continue to contribute. We have the Paris Climate Agreement, which sets the broad framework. In order to achieve the goals formulated there, we must act now. Added to this is the European Commission's legislation in recent years. We need transformation, both in the economy and at an individual level. National policy-makers have an urgent responsibility to create the framework conditions for this. In view of the challenges involved, we also need critical discussions between all members of our society. This is certainly not always easy, but it is necessary in order to tackle the transformation as a task for society as a whole. For us in science, too, the question arises as to how we can continue to support the development of solutions. When we look at land use issues in my field, these are very complex questions in which nature, water, land use, production and the economy all play a role. To accompany this scientifically and identify trade-offs and synergies is not something that one discipline or one institution can do alone. This is another reason why we at Helmholtz are increasingly focusing on interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary cooperation and solutions with our forward-looking research framework programme.


What major contributions do you expect the geosciences to make to climate protection and adaptation issues in the coming years? And how well is the GFZ positioned for this?
Negative emissions are currently a much-discussed topic. Of course, we want to reduce the sources of greenhouse gases, but we can also strengthen the sinks. Both help the climate. We don't have that many natural sinks. Forests, soils and our oceans are well-documented sinks. They absorb CO₂ on a large scale, but are sometimes less effective due to global warming. Research into and realisation of other possibilities, including technical ones, will therefore become more important in the future. This includes, for example, CCS, i.e. the capture and geological storage of CO₂. Here I also see the GFZ together with the Research Institute for Sustainability RIFS in a good position and role, because there are various solutions for negative emissions. Ultimately, there will not be one golden solution to protect the climate; we need a combination of many different measures. We at the GFZ are well positioned and very active for both technical and natural climate solutions: we provide important data, work on new methods and can make scientifically sound comparisons of what can work where. And we make our knowledge available not only to the research community, but also to politics and society, through discussions, information events and fact sheets. The GFZ is indeed very holistic in this respect. And with the Research Institute for Sustainability RIFS, we have an in-house partner whose transformative sustainability research approach also focuses on political and social implementation. In general - not least against the backdrop of the US elections and the expectation that the USA will be significantly less committed to climate protection in the coming years: Science must network, deepen knowledge and persistently continue to research solutions, especially now. This is the only way to get closer to the goal of counteracting climate change.

Prof Martin Herold, thank you for the interview!

*About the official "observer status" at Conference of Parties:
Organizations (non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs)) must be admitted by the Conference of the Parties (COP) as observer organizations to the UNFCCC process to send representatives to attend any UNFCCC sessions or meetings.

More information about land use changes:
Masolele et al. (2024): Mapping the diversity of land uses following deforestation across Africa. Scientific Reportsvolume 14, Article number: 1681